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USA Industrial Production at Post-Recession High! (Chart) *Highest since August 2008*

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Federal Reserve Statistical Release: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

Trend The short-term trend continues upwards, with 5 consecutive monthly increases and 6 increases in the past 7 months. The intermediate-term trend and the long-term trend continue upwards.

Cycle History The current September 2011 USA Industrial Production Index is a Post-Great Recession peak of 94.19 (preliminary). A Great Recession cyclical low of 83.53 was set in June 2009. The Pre-Great Recession peak was reached of 100.72 in September 2007.

Industrial Production Index (Chart) Below is a multi-year chart of the USA Industrial Production Index including the Pre-Great Recession cyclical peak of 100.72 in September 2007 through the latest month reported. After the Great Recession cyclical low of 83.53 in June 2009, USA industrial production increased 15 consecutive months (July 2009 through September 2010). In the 13 months following, there have been 3 monthly decreases and a Post-Great Recession high was set in September 2011 of 94.19 (preliminary).

Commentary The September 2011 USA Industrial Production Index of 94.19 (preliminary) eked out a new Post-Great Recession cyclical peak, which is encouraging. The Index was revised in prior months both positive and negative. Overall, the September 2011 monthly increase was small at +0.19% and the level is approximately the midpoint between the Pre-Recession peak and Recession low.

Official Statement by the Federal Reserve (October 17, 2011) Industrial production increased 0.2 percent in September after having been unchanged in August.Previously, industrial production was reported to have stepped up 0.2 percent in August. For the third quarter asa whole, industrial production rose at an annual rate of 5.1 percent. Manufacturing output moved up 0.4 percent in September after having gained 0.3 percent in August. Production at mines advanced 0.8 percent in September,while the output of utilities decreased 1.8 percent. At 94.2 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial productionfor September was 3.2 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for total industry edged up to77.4 percent, a rate 1.7 percentage points above its level from a year earlier but 3.0 percentage points below itslong-run (1972–2010) average.

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